Obesity drugs have overtaken oncology as the highest value area in drug research and development (R&D), a report from accountancy firm Deloitte has found.
Its recent ‘Measuring the return from pharmaceutical innovation report’ said that glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) drugs accounted for approximately 25% of total forecast sales of the late-stage pipeline in 2025 – up from just 1% in 2022.
Oncology drugs on the other hand, contributed 20% of the total late-stage forecast value in 2025, down from 26% in 2024.
This ‘seismic shift’ is risky for pharmaceutical companies because it makes them more dependent on one therapeutic area, the report warned.
It said: ‘This rapid consolidation of value means that the portfolios of the highest-performing companies in our analysis are now more sensitive to therapy area-specific shocks.
‘Tightening of pricing and market access, an increase in competitive intensity, unexpected safety signals, or manufacturing supply constraints within the GLP-1/GIP space could have a significant impact on their overall R&D returns.’
Indeed, David Chapman, Life Sciences director at Deloitte, said: ‘The degree of concentration we’re seeing is unprecedented as a small number of assets can lift the entire industry’s [return on investment].
‘However, it comes with greater competition and sensitivity to clinical, regulatory or market access shocks. This high-stakes environment is compounded by the continued upsurge in development costs, which has seen an increase of half a billion dollars per asset.’
Pharmacy priorities for obesity medicines
Commenting on the news from a pharmacy perspective, Professor Amira Guirguis, chief scientist at the Royal College of Pharmacy, said: ‘The Deloitte report highlights a major shift in pharmaceutical innovation, with GLP-1 obesity medicines now accounting for a much larger share of pipeline value and, for the first time in 16 years, overtaking oncology.
‘This reflects strong scientific and commercial momentum in obesity research, while also raising important questions about balance across the wider innovation pipeline.
‘For patients, these medicines may offer meaningful benefits where excess weight and related comorbidities are affecting health and quality of life. However, their use must remain evidence based, safely regulated, and firmly grounded in clinical need.
‘From a pharmacy and patient care perspective, the priority is ensuring that these therapies are used appropriately within well-defined clinical pathways, with clear guidance, professional oversight, and equitable access.
‘Pharmacists and pharmaceutical scientists have an important role in supporting safe use, helping patients understand benefits and risks, and ensuring these medicines are integrated into longer-term, holistic care.’
GLP-1 pill progress
The new Deloitte report comes as manufacturer Novo Nordisk announced that its tirzepatide pill is expected to launch outside the US during the second half of 2026.
Weekly prescriptions of the pill, which launched in the US on 5 January, exceeded 200,000 in the week ending 17 April, Novo Nordisk said in its quarter one financial report.
It added that sales for the Wegovy pill have reached 2,256 million Danish Krone (£261m) – more than double analysts’ predictions.
Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s new weight loss pill orforglipron, which was introduced in the US on 1 April, has been prescribed 7,335 times in its fourth week, Reuters has reported.
This article was originally published by our sister publication The Pharmacist.
